You Can’t Rate Hike a Chokepoint : Iran Speaker

by Staff Writer 18-09-2026 | 2:12 PM

COLOMBO (News 1st); Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has drawn international attention after using a well-known economic formula to deliver a pointed wartime message to the United States, just hours before the US Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point increase in interest rates.

Ghalibaf, who has also played a prominent role in negotiations between Tehran and Washington during the past six months, posted a version of the Taylor Rule on social media platform X.

The Taylor Rule is a formula commonly used by economists to estimate where central banks should set interest rates based on inflation and overall economic performance.

In his post, Ghalibaf appeared to argue that monetary policy alone cannot solve the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Referring to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, he wrote: “Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel.”

He then added, “You can’t 25bp a chokepoint. It’s SOH risk premium, and we set it,” a reference to the 25-basis-point interest rate increase that was later announced by the US Federal Reserve.

The comments were widely interpreted as a message that while Washington can adjust interest rates, it cannot easily counter the economic effects of disruptions to vital maritime routes and global energy supplies.

The Taylor Rule, developed by economist John Taylor in the early 1990s, is used as a benchmark to guide interest rate decisions. The formula links interest rates to inflation and the gap between actual economic output and an economy’s potential output. In simple terms, it recommends higher interest rates when inflation rises above target levels or when economic activity becomes too strong, and lower rates when growth weakens.

Although widely respected, the Taylor Rule is not a strict formula that central banks must follow. Policymakers often consider a broader range of factors when making interest rate decisions.

Economic analysts say several factors contributed to the Federal Reserve's latest rate increase. These include inflationary pressures linked to US tariffs, increased investment associated with the global artificial intelligence boom, and rising energy costs following the conflict involving Iran.

The Federal Reserve's decision marked the first interest rate increase in three years. Following the announcement, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh acknowledged that renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran, which have contributed to higher fuel prices, influenced policymakers' thinking.

“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world,” Warsh said after the rate decision.

Ghalibaf's latest post is part of a broader pattern of using economic and financial arguments to challenge US policy. Since the beginning of the conflict, he has frequently used social media to highlight what he describes as the economic costs facing the United States.

In March, he criticized attempts by the Trump administration to influence energy markets, arguing that financial measures could not create real fuel supplies. Last month, he shared a graphic carrying the slogan “Make America Hungry Again,” a play on Donald Trump's famous campaign slogan, alongside statistics related to food insecurity in the United States.

Analysts say the latest mathematical reference was less about proposing an alternative economic model and more about emphasizing Iran's strategic influence over global trade and energy markets.

According to observers, Ghalibaf's central message is that a US interest rate increase cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz or replace oil supplies disrupted by geopolitical tensions. By adapting the Taylor Rule to include strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, he was attempting to show that economic stability depends not only on inflation and interest rates but also on maritime security and energy flows.

Experts note that the timing of the post was significant. By publishing the message shortly before the Federal Reserve announced its 25-basis-point rate increase, Ghalibaf sought to frame the discussion around the broader economic consequences of the conflict, emphasizing that global markets, fuel prices and monetary policy are increasingly influenced by geopolitical developments.